I’m also puzzled by this rain as to get rain, you need clouds, yet according to the
report from Pawnchee Hamid (VH-ESV) who flew through that area at virtually the same
time heading towards WLM and shortly after heading back up to check out a fire, he
said:
Maybe this cloud was at a lower height that he was unable to see in the darkness and was more confined to the Stroud Road township area (spoken of in a further report in this article). One needs to keep in mind that this accident was in 1981 and people’s minds get confused all these years later!
From the Faulkland Trig that they would have needed at least 2200 ft to clear, it
appears they have lost altitude as Mrs Krane estimated that they were down to something
like 200 meters (650 ft) AGL (Ground level there was 200 ft which makes the height
this plane was flying at about 850 ft ASL) and with those winds on that night, the
only way anyone would fly that low in amongst those hills would be only if they had
no option.
She said she was south of Weismantels and here in lies a problem. Weismantels
is more of an area than a place, so this makes it difficult to pin point exactly
where Mrs Krane was when she first saw the plane. The plane was coming from the
West to NW of Riverwood which is obviously the name of a farm called Riverwood Downs
shown in the image below.
It would obviously be logical for a pilot to follow a highway heading in the direction
of where you wanted to go as it would have been much easier to follow the car lights
dotted along the highway, and also be able to judge the height of the land below
you from those lights ... not to mention the lights of the towns also visible along
that route, although at the time and height they were when Mrs Krane saw it turn
east down Bucketts Way, a view of the towns would have been blocked by terrain at
that stage.
With the tailwind behind this plane at that point of time, would mean
that the likeliest point of intersection overhead Mrs Krane’s car would have been
somewhere just before the intersection of Monkerai Road and the Bucketts Way.
Mrs
Krane continued to see the plane as it flew ahead of her, and as she no doubt was
traveling at the speed limit of 100 kms (60 mph / 52 knots) if Mike was still at
90 - 100 knots trying to ride out the turbulence, that would mean he had a ground
speed at least faster than 52 knots – faster than Mrs Krane as she could see it out
in front.
She followed it along the highway for about a minute or so which would mean
at 80 - 90 knots ground speed – allowing for the crosswind component - the plane
would have traveled between 1.3 nm to 1.5 nm from where it first intersected her
position to the position where she observed it turning for the coast.
You need to
stop and think on this... If you have intercepted a main highway which should have
been easy to follow – and going in the direction you wish to go, so why turn off
it and head for the dark featureless hills? Maybe Mike wished to go to Bulahdelah
16 nm away, but seeing as he was down fairly low, he wouldn’t have been able to see
the lights of that town anyway as the hills between them and Bulahdelah were higher
than what they were - obscuring the view. It also would have meant they would have
had to climb to get over the hills... something that seemed a bit impossible as they
seemed to be getting lower and lower. When you are down in amongst the hills in high
winds, you’d be putting on the power and climbing to get into less turbulent air,
not staying down low, so it is an obvious conclusion seeing as the plane was seen
there at low altitude, that they were unable to climb.
MDX pg 54