Gavin Grimmer
Regardless, my one concern of this track is that the position of MDX at the point of being on the 330 radial (adjusted to 11.732 degrees variation) is getting further out of whack (i.e. the radar, etc. delay is about 48 seconds), but if we slow the speed down to a maximum rate of climb speed that Mike may have reverted to, to give a higher rate of climb - which he may well have done in an attempt to prevent the rapid loss of altitude, then I would estimate that this could bring this delay back to around 20 seconds. If Mike was doing this, then with all the added weight of the ice on the airframe, the chances are the descent would increase as with the extra weight because the stall speed increases! If this is the case, then I would say that the 5000' position could well be about 1 nm mile further back.
The descent from the 6500' to 5000' is presumed to be linear, but as hinted above, Mike may well have been converting to a full powered maximum rate of climb speed through this period and so his rate of descent would not be linear but increasing rapidly... the slower the speed and the higher the angle of attack - the steeper the decent... what's known as a full powered stall (not necessarily a spin). The Air France Flight 447 crash into the Atlantic was a classic example of this. The maximum rate of climb for the C210 is 90 knots and with the weight of all the ice, the stall speed would have risen to around 94 knots. The minute he slowed it down to achieve the maximum rate of climb, he would have been in serious trouble! This image below, you will need to spend a bit of time studying it as there is quite a bit of information contained in it.
Note the red line on the blue track? This red line represents the position given on Google Earth Elevation Profile graph shown at the bottom of the image, and I have positioned this red line in proportion to the graph to make it easy to compare the layout of the land to the elevation.
On the left you will see that I have then used the GE image as a continuation of the elevation of the graph, the yellow asterisks represent the position in height in relation to the graph, and the red dots the trajectory of MDX's projected last minutes of flight. The blue asterisk and dots represent the estimated trajectory if it had been slowed down in an attempt to convert the speed to the maximum rate of climb.... although if it stalled, it could be even further to the left on this image - more to the bottom of the valley.
One thing I must point out here is that all this I calculated way back in January and so much has happened since then with all my other searches, so I am struggling a lot to try to remember everything, but I hope have given you all enough to wet your appetites to enthuse yourselves to check all this out for yourselves. I may be wrong, but hopefully I have given you a lead for you to be able to rethink your own ideas.
This may look like the end of this update, but there is more....
It's a long story, but just briefly, in my travels I came across a person who has a reputation of being able to find elements anywhere on the planet using an electronic device he invented. I believe it is based on Nicola Tesla's technology. He had never thought of trying to find missing aircraft with it before, so using it for this purpose is just as new to him as it is to me, so at this stage it is purely in the experimental/development stage. He goes about attempting to find the elements of things like aluminum, rubber, lead, iron, glass, perspex, and even human bones - elements that are common to missing aircraft with lost souls on board.
He has so far given me co-ordinates of all the missing aircraft over here, (plus MDX) and some of these positions have simply 'blown me away'! Admittedly, my initial reaction to a couple of them has been "what a lot of rubbish!", but when I have looked into the positions more thoroughly I have ended up totally astounded! The positions portray information that he could not have possibly known, in fact some have caused me to have a total rethink as they have answered questions that have always puzzled me on the individual cases. Hence the reason why I have been so busy this year - doing searches into the bush to test out the accuracy of these positions. With one case, we went to the exact co-ordinates but found nothing, but the theory of it being there was so good that we walked out along a ridge as this position given to me was in the direction that the plane was last seen flying towards and it was my belief that they had clipped the ridge turning onto finals to the only place that could have been successfully used for an emergency landing for many miles.
MDX pg 30