The position of the radar fade shown on the Sydney radar screen, covers quite a large
area - the circled spot covering an area of 10 nm, and this search area is just on
the edge of that circle. Like I said previously, whoever drew these circles on the
radar chart I believe was just generalising the area and the track between the two,
and would have been going by memory... not actually plotting it as it happened. Presumably
the ATCO who stated it was approximately 5 nm east of Craven was the same person
that drew these objects on this chart, yet 5 nm east (magnetic), is also outside
the circled area.
Although this search area is the most probable, I do have one major reservation with
it. If MDX had gone in there, it would have hit at over two hundred knots, and with
all the fuel that was on board, there would have been a huge explosion and an awful
big fire... and yet no-one in the big search after the event reported a fire on this
hillside? I cropped a section off this chart and overlaid it on Google Earth out
of interest:
If this is accurate, then maybe MDX did stray off to the left of this track? Who
really knows?
As just previously said, my best guess is that the circle was just a bit of an educated
guess (going by by the memory of the Controller) of the general area. There is another
possibility of a crash site, and this is due to further possibilities that I eluded
to earlier.
Maybe the ice did melt and he was able to fly a fair way further before he crashed
– and if he did recover, then why did he crash?
The answer to this possibility is found in Glenn's calculation that once under 5800
ft, MDX was no longer able to be picked up on radar. For instance...What if either
of these two scenarios happened:
1/ He managed to pull out of the descent but in his blind panic to get back up to
the safe height of 6000', he stalled and spun it into the ground?
2/ He managed to pull out of the descent but in the process exceeded Vne (Never Exceed
Speed) and in the extreme turbulence at the lower altitude, the aircraft broke up
in flight in the very rough area closer to the ground?
Why have I drawn both of these crash site possibilities in the same area? Read on
to find out!