Gavin Grimmer
If ZK-CSS had crashed into the sea and taken this suitcase down with it, it would have become water-logged and unlikely to float. If it had been thrown out of the plane on impact, I doubt that it would have lasted months floating in the water as the material it was made from would have disintegrated.
The only logical explanation would surely be that it was in a sheltered spot (under the tree canopy?) and eventually was washed down into a stream and out to the coast where it was caught in the northerly drift and deposited a short time later on Greens Beach.
I think you will have to agree, wherever ZK-CSS and the Turner Family ended up, it is highly probable that it is somewhere in this general area of the Okarito Forest!
If anyone is interested in a weekend ground search, then please contact Clive and Michelle Jenkins at Franz Josef Mechanical. Phone 03 752 0108.
Page 10 of 15
Update 14-04-2012
At the time of the disappearance, a lot of weight was put on the search area as being probably somewhere that allowed for both radio calls to be heard in Timaru at the same time they were heard in Hokitika.
This area was calculated at the time as being in the vicinity of the headwaters of the Godley River at an altitude of around 8000 ft. This was based on the fact that a VHF signal is generally ‘line of sight’ only. The theory at the time of the search must have been that they were still in the area of the Godley River at the time of both transmissions.
Interestingly, this height is very close to my calculated height of 7500’ according to the reception areas in the Perth River on page 6 of this article.... and the “headwaters of the Godley River” is where I believe he went as this is where the Sealy Pass is.
The Turners may well have been at 8000 ft (or higher) at that point, and descended to 7500 ft in the Perth River area, however whether they were at 8000 ft, or 7500 ft, does not really concern me for the following reason:
There is a phenomena known as “VHF Tropospheric Ducting” which is similar to what is more commonly known with UHF as a “Skip”.
If you care to do a ‘Google Search’ on the Internet, you will find lots of information on the subject.
Ducting can happen when there is a hot air inversion over an area and it usually happens as the sun disappears over the horizon, where the area that is now in the ‘shade’ - cools, yet the upper air that is still in the sunlight remains warm. It also can happen when a cold weather front pushes under a hot area of air - as you would probably know... hot air rises, cold air descends.
